Friday, September 17, 2010

The Hostage-taking Incident Report : a fearless forecast

The Incident Investigation and Review Committee (IIRC) will submit its findings to President Benigno Aquino III tomorrow afternoon. In it will be a list of names, against whom the committee shall recommend the filing of criminal and administrative charges.

Likely to be charged criminally (mostly criminal negligence, except for one) and/or administratively are the following:

Manila Police Chief Superintendent RODOLFO MAGTIBAY, ground commander


- for failing to make a proper assessment of field conditions

- for not having had the area properly secured from mediamen and bystanders

- for employing a flawed strategy of “wearing out” the hostage-taker

- for opting to utilize an obviously inferior rescue team, the Manila SWAT (Special Weapons and Tactics) in favor of the more battle-ready SAF (Special Action Force) stationed at the back of the grandstand, just awaiting the signal to assault.

Allegedly, Magtibay had “issues” with Police Director Leocadio Santiago Jr., NCRPO (National Capital Region Police Office) Chief, and former SAF Commander. Santiago, is Magtibays junior in the PMA (Philippine Military Academy), but now outranks him in the police hierarchy.

A case of who has got the bigger d*ck, perhaps?

- for being the ground commander and leaving the ground at a critical time 

Mayor ALFREDO LIM, Chairman of the Manila Crisis Management Committee


- for ordering the arrest of Senior Police Officer II (SPO2) Gregorio Mendoza, hostage-taker Rolando Mendoza’s brother

- for leaving the scene of an ongoing crime and for having “invited” the ground commander to join him for dinner

- for having approved Magtibay’s strategy

SPO2 GREGORIO MENDOZA, the hostage-taker’s brother


- for his presence, which aggravated the situation

- for having communicated with the hostage-taker, preventing him from being pacified by the Ombudsman’s letter, and telling him not to believe in the hostage-negotiator

- for resisting arrest, being overly melodramatic, and generally, for “making a scene” at the scene

Radio Mindanao Network (RMN) anchors MICHAEL ROGAS 
and ERWIN TULFO


- for hogging the only phone line allowing negotiators access to the hostage-taker

- for airing a live conversation with the hostage-taker despite having been disallowed by the police from doing so

- for acting as negotiators without the expertise to do so

(read: Transcript of RMN "interview" with Mendoza)

Police Superintendent ORLANDO YEBRA 
and Police Chief Inspector ROMEO SALVADOR


- for relying exclusively on a mobile phone to communicate with the hostage-taker

- for allowing a non-negotiator to negotiate on their behalf

NCRPO Chief LEOCADIO SANTIAGO (Magtibay’s superior but junior in the PMA)


- for not having exercised active supervision and direct management of what had already been identified as a situation of national concern

Manila Vice Mayor ISKO MORENO


- for having acted as negotiator without the expertise to do so

GMA reporter SUSAN ENRIQUEZ may be on the list but most likely none from ABS-CBN will be on it, despite TED FAILON’s interview with Gregorio Mendoza.

GMA’s MICHAEL FAJATIN who had been interviewing snipers in-between shots will not be on the list.

The policeman who was not a member of the SWAT (his name escapes me) but had joined the assault and even issued instructions as the operation went on, will not be on it.

Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary JESSE ROBREDO will not be on it, nor will Communications Secretaries SONNY COLOMA and RICKY CARANDANG.

Former PNP Chief JESUS VERZOSA will not be on it.

DILG Undersecretary (“in-charge of police concerns”) RICO PUNO may just disappear from the list.

The report will recommend that Deputy Ombudsman EMILIO GONZALEZ III be investigated for possible violations of the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act (Republic Act 3019).

Recommendations, names, and particulars may change within the next 12 hours.

Don’t take my word for it. This is just inspired guesswork. (DPG)

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

forecast ba talaga ito or do you have access to the draft report?

Anonymous said...

I think Erwin Tulfo is in the position to attempt to negotiate, having successfully made two hostage takers surrender in the past.

deadpoetghostwriter said...

Anonymous (1): It is what it says it is, a forecast.

Anonymous (2): Perhaps. I personally think that Isko Moreno wasn't too shabby at it either. He spoke the language of Mendoza. He was able to negotiate for the release of one of the hostages.

At the end of the day however, it is not whom we think could have been the better negotiator. It is who was/were designated at that time.

The media was there for a reason. So were the police. The rescue was bungled because people did not play their roles. Some insisted to do more than what was necessary; others did so much less than the situation had warranted.

Who knows? What Malacanang will release, how the "final" report will appear, may (or most likely) may not be the same one the IIRC came up with.

That too, is a a "forecast."

Anonymous said...

Most are accurate except your prediction on Verzosa, ABS-CBN and GMA, and the brother Gregorio Mendoza. And USEC Puno is still in the list.

deadpoetghostwriter said...

Thanks. Credit that to "inspiration."

As for the names and organizations whose fates I "inaccurately" predicted, remember that the recommendations of the IIRC are still under review by the President's legal team (of two).

Consider this, what if feelers were sent to the IIRC for a "sanitized" version of the report? What if these feelers were rejected? What if the results of the legal team's review is a way to arrive at that "sanitized" version without having to go through the IIRC? What if the results come out as my blog had predicted?

Politics has a way of creeping in when we are most complacent.

I stand by my forecast: none of the media broadcast organizations are going to be charged with anything, much less a criminal lawsuit. Verzosa will not be charged. Puno may or may not be charged depending on who wins the battle between the Balai and Samar factions.

As for Gregorio Mendoza, remember this: "Likely to be charged criminally (mostly criminal negligence, except for one)..."?

He will have to face more than just a case of criminal negligence. He was the "one" I had referred to.

Anonymous said...

who are you?

deadpoetghostwriter said...

"who are you," asked Mr. Anonymous. LOL!

linda said...

nanonood akong balita sa tv sabi may nagleak daw ng report. binalikan ko sulat mo sakto yung sabi kung bakit kakasuhan si lim!tsaka pati yong sa kapatid ng naghostage sabi ni teresita ang-sy kakasuhan din daw. ang galing mo naman manghula!

deadpoetghostwriter said...

Linda's post roughly translates: I've been watching the news on tv and according to it, the (undisclosed portions of the) report have been leaked (to the media). I went back to what you wrote and the portion about why (Mayor) Lim is going to be charged is exactly as the report says; including the part on the hostage-taker's brother (Gregorio Mendoza), whom Teresita Ang See (a member of the IIRC panel) said the IIRC also recommended for (criminal) charges. You're good for somebody who's (just) guessing.

-----

Linda: Thank you for paying attention - to the news and to what I had written. The truth is, anybody who knows enough of both history and current events would have come up with the same conclusions as I did.

And even assuming that someone had indeed "leaked" the results of the report to the media and to the public, the next logical question is not "why" or "who" or to "whom." The question is, "why not?"

What happened affected us all. If the Chinese government was given access to it, why the hell not the Filipino public?

Unless divulging its contents will result in a national crisis, which obviously is not the case, then that report is public document. The President who ordered the investigation acts on a mandate given to him by the people; the committee utilized public funds to conduct the investigation; it is simply a public issue.

Executive Secretary Ochoa said the report had "really been intended to be submitted to the President only."

Can you say, "ignorant?"

Can you say, "arrogant?"

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